A rough analysis of Kajang By-election on 23.3.14 :
It was a fight between the PR and BN only, and it was represented by Dr. Wan Azizah binti Wan Ismail of the Keadilan and Datin Paduka Chew Mei Fun of the MCA. The result was Dr. Wan Azizah binti Wan Ismail of the Keadilan won.
On the basis of Party, in my opinion, it was obvious PR had slightly improved its popularity, making inroad into the BN strong- hold and had also improved the overall popularity vote by 1.6 % since the previous election (58.0% to 59.6%)
The gaining of a few extra votes, in BN traditional held areas no doubt looked insignificant in comparing with the previous election yet it showed the popularity of the PR had gained ground.
The reduction of majority vote of the PR as popularized by the presses cannot be considered as accurate as there was correspondingly decrease of voters who came out to vote. This reduction was expected. We had only 72% of the voters who came out to vote whereas previously in May 5, 2013, we had 88% of the voters who came out to vote. (Total turnout 28314 and represented 72% and 34290 represented 88%)
The missing voters could be classified under the following categories:
(a) Those who work out-station and found it difficult to return to vote. Majority of these could be long distance out-station workers and could not get leave.
(b) Those who think an extra vote was not necessary as it was a foregone conclusion PR would win. Under this category it could be from any group.
(c) Those on polling day had left the country for holidays or in business. Under this category it could be from the business group.
(d) Those for some unknown reason, refused to vote. This was an insignificant group, but it did add up to the figure of absentee.
Detail are: PKR netted 16,741 votes
BN netted 11362 votes
Majority 5379 votes
PKR 59.5% of the votes
The overall result of the By- election showed that BN had slightly lost in the Malay area. That indicated the strategy applied did not suit them. On the other hand BN had made some gain in the Chinese area. Maybe the strategy applied might have some impact on them.
My opinion: A total new strategy that could be accepted by the voters is needed for the next contest in order to win. With the present strategy I am afraid it may not work out well.
Dr. Chan
