2014-03-30

Analysis of Kajang By-election

A rough analysis of Kajang By-election on 23.3.14 :

It was a fight between the PR and BN only, and it was represented by Dr. Wan Azizah binti Wan Ismail of the Keadilan and Datin Paduka Chew Mei Fun of the MCA. The result was Dr. Wan Azizah binti Wan Ismail of the Keadilan won.

On the basis of Party, in my opinion, it was obvious PR had slightly improved its popularity, making inroad into the BN strong- hold and had also improved the overall popularity vote by 1.6 % since the previous election (58.0% to 59.6%)

The gaining of a few extra votes, in BN traditional held areas no doubt looked insignificant in comparing with the previous election yet it showed the popularity of the PR had gained ground.

The reduction of majority vote of the PR as popularized by the presses cannot be considered as accurate as there was correspondingly decrease of voters who came out to vote. This reduction was expected. We had only 72% of the voters who came out to vote whereas previously in May 5, 2013, we had 88% of the voters who came out to vote. (Total turnout 28314 and represented 72% and 34290 represented 88%)

The missing voters could be classified under the following categories:

(a)           Those who work out-station and found it difficult to return to vote. Majority of these could be long distance out-station workers and could not get leave.

(b)           Those who think an extra vote was not necessary as it was a foregone conclusion PR would win. Under this category it could be from any group.

(c)             Those on polling day had left the country for holidays or in business. Under this category it could be from the business group.

(d)           Those for some unknown reason, refused to vote. This was an insignificant group, but it did add up to the figure of absentee.

 

Detail are: PKR netted 16,741 votes

                           BN netted 11362 votes

                           Majority 5379 votes

                       PKR 59.5% of the votes


The overall result of the By- election showed that BN had slightly lost in the Malay area. That indicated the strategy applied did not suit them. On the other hand BN had made some gain in the Chinese area. Maybe the strategy applied might have some impact on them.

My opinion: A total new strategy that could be accepted by the voters is needed for the next contest in order to win. With the present strategy I am afraid it may not work out well.

Dr. Chan


2014-02-13

Chan Swee,s Comment On Kajang By-Election.


Without doubt at the present scenario BN / UMNO is totally  playing the Ketuanan Melayu  strategy against the Pakatan Rakyat multi-racial approach.They are being cornered at their own game by their arrogance after the GE 2004. Wholesale corruption,abuse of power ,utter disregard for the law , greed and total  insensitive of the non-Malay sentiments is the result.At the present moment Pakatan Rakyat is doing the right thing emphasizing on the price increases which affect everyone.The Pakatan Rakyat leadership is very united in their approach with a little disagreements at the grassroots level. Everyone is able to read the game with the help of the Internet.We can weigh all the information and opinions from all sides and be able to judge them.To me ,MCA is between the devil and the deep blue sea,to go for it or not  makes no difference, the result will be the same.To go for it , it shows  MCA is still a force to be reckoned with.Not going for it shows the death of MCA.

2014-02-11

James Lim's Comment on Kajang By-Election


Dr. Chan had specifically stated the possible reasons why Mr. Lee Chin cheh has galantly vacated his seat in Kajang for Datuk Seri Anwar. Whatever the reasons, it was done in good faith and good intent.

Though the Kajang constituency was initially designated for MCA, and you can now realize that most component parties not to mention UMNO have conveniently and generously proposed that the candidate should come from MCA without any whims and avarice.

As Dr. Chan blatantly puts it in the most appropriate manner-  ' Kamikaze to whoever nominated '

Definitely, MCA should be now wise and prudent enough to be strategic not to accept the honour of choice especially when MCA is at its lowest ebb and at its weakest point. It will be another Doomsday .

MCA should now be concentrating with focus on how to restructure and reorganize its precarious position rather than being manipulated again.

Besides ' Kajang Constituency ' will be the battle ground for the titans and it will take another Umnoputra to see it through and not MCA.

From James

2014-02-10

Dr.Chan's Comment On Kajang By-Election

Kajang By- election scheduled to be held on 23rd.Mar 2014
A By-election for the Selangor state Kajang constituency shall be held on 23rd.Mar 2014 as directed by the Election Commission.
Mr. Lee Chin Cheh from the PKR, the elected assembly representative, on 27th. Jan 2014 abruptly resigned without giving any reason. According to the law, his vacant seat would be filled by another person by way of a By-election within 60 days from the day the speaker of the assembly made the announcement of the resignation. Thus, this By-election was ordered.
Kajang constituency has a total of 39,278 voters. This includes the newly registered voters. Nomination day was fixed to be on 11th. Mar. 2014. Early voting was fixed to be on 19th.Mar.2014 for the 1,197 early voters. 
Upon the announcement of the resignation of Mr. Lee Chin Cheh by the Speaker of the state Assembly,   Datuk Seri Anwar was the first person to declare himself as a candidate to the By-election. Since then he had invited numerous comments and speculations from various quarters, of his move. The opposite camp, of cause, did not fail to discredit him in any way possible by painting a black picture of him. His move could be said has created a political storm of the day.
By this By-election he has also created an opportunity for himself to disseminate to the public effectively the news of mismanagement of the UMNO government. The inability of the government to control the raising prices of basic daily food- staffs, the run- away prices of goods and services, the looming threat of tax increase by way of the impending implementation of the General Service Tax (GST) and a host of other unpopular taxes, soon to be implemented are of everyone concern.
On the other hand the By-election has given Datuk Seri Anwar a chance to make known his ideas as to how to over-come the mismanagement of the UMNO government. How the public would benefit from his fair policies. He is in fact offering to the people a choice for the alternative.
Normally we would hear reasonable comments or reasonable rebuttals from politicians but it pained me to observe that most of the comments were personal attacks which to me were merely gossips, not worth listening to. A few high powered politicians who dislike Datuk Seri Anwar went as low as casting aspersions or making insinuating remarks on his ability to hold high office. To me this amounted to pure character assassination and this is rather unfair. Why should he suffer such a vicious attack? After all he is trying to serve the country and its people. So far all the reasons put forward against him were pure speculations and unfounded.
The actual reason for the By-election could be many. I would say only Mr. Lee and Datuk Seri Anwar know the truth as to why this By-election was created. Unfortunately, Datuk and Mr. Lee felt it was best to keep the real reason a secret. They have the rights to do so. I see no reason why some leaders of NGOs demanded from him to reveal the true reason for the By-election. Was it they themselves wanted to know or the public wanted to know? The answer is crystal clear if one really understands the present political situation.  
Datuk Seri Anwar, when he was asked, only stated that his act is to fortify the state from the political onslaught of UMNO and to use Selangor as a base to get nearer to Putrajaya.  In my opinion, this is partly true. My feeling is that PKR at present without doubt is under severe political attack by UMNO. His presence is needed to repel the onslaught.
By-election is one of the effective ways to defense and to repel the enemy. A number of its important grass roots leaders and those now holding legislative positions in the government are showing sign of discontentment and that may lead to disloyalty to the Party. Under such circumstances they may jump ship. There is a danger to the Party. Datuk Seri Anwar needs to address this problem fast otherwise the problem will escalate leading to the disintegration of the Party.PKR needs a strong base where by a strong finance is generated to sustain the functioning of the party just like any of its partners. DAP has the base in Penang. PAS has a base in Kelantan.
He has to start cleaning up the Party in preparation for the coming 14th.General Election. This could be the beginning. If my assessment is correct I believe you may see more action of him to come.
If MCA is given the mandate to produce a candidate to this By-election, I consider him as a kamikaze. In the last election (2013) the MCA candidate managed to garner 12,747 out of 38965 votes, lost by a vast majority of 6,824 votes in the 6 corner fight. With this record the chances of a win is very remote.
One must accept the fact that the Party has just able to stabilize its leadership but yet to improve its organization weakness. The confidence of the public to the Party has not been earned. It is not the time to go for battle. Why can’t the Party leaders be more prudent? Reorganize and rebuilt and do battle later. The result of this by election is forgone conclusion. Let others do the battle. Even UMNO had conceded defeat.

2014-01-29

What will Penang MCA Position Be In The Coming 14th GE

What will Penang MCA position be in the coming 14th.General Election?
I am not a soothsayer. In fact, if you ask any ordinary Penang guy, he will tell you what will be the out-come. If he is diplomatic enough he will answer, “Status quo”. If not, his answer will be “another egg (zero) for another term”.
I am inclined to agree to his view. But, looking at the line-up of the state liaison committee it gave me a ray of hope that there could be improvement. There will be a possibility of the Party winning back a few seats if the right strategy is adopted. The present situation is not totally irreversible.
The Chairperson, she appeared to me is someone who knows what to do. She had shown her daring by keeping the obsolete warlords out of key posts and placed them in the unimportant honorary posts. Her courageous act is to be admired. This could be a part of the game plan to reorganize the Party to begin with.
The Party needs to develop a strong effective image, an image which is capable of daring to voice out, to correct any wrong doing or any unfairness in the policies of the government which affect the public. At the same time, the Party must create an effective avenue where the people can go to request for help. The creating an array of Bureaus headed by capable grass roots leaders to spear head the recovery of a strong effective image of the Party is right. 
Fortunately, there is amble time, approximately four years for the Party as from now to carry out the reformation task. If the Chairperson is resourceful and capable enough to monitor the Bureaus well, then there may be a chance to achieve the aim.
At present, the image of Penang MCA has gone to the dog. To many it is at the critical stage of disintegration. To me there is a ray of hope to nurse it back. The organization structure is still intact but only need is to be up-graded.  There is an urgent need to search for more honest, capable, motivated and trust-worthy grass roots leaders. Without them I am afraid the reformation of the Party is just a dream.
Bear this in mind. In this era, an era of economy, any motivation without substantial incentives will not produce the desired effect. Therefore, grass roots leaders without reasonable incentives will not work diligently to achieve the desired result.
If leaders fail to take note of the above points I am afraid the Party may go for another period of hibernation.
Dr. Chan      28.01.14

2014-01-18

Self interest over rides ethical behavior

Self interest over rides ethical behavior ( This is madness ).
                                                                                                          
 “ Soi Lek: Liow broke deal has no credibility” The report from Malaysiankini dated 16.1.14  really startled me. I was wondering, how could Soi Lek, a past President publicly condemned Tiong Lai, the present President as a person of no credibility. He had a hand in the game in getting Tiong Lai winning the Presidency. What Soi Lek is doing now is creating a very bad image to the Party. The Party may be destroyed by his mad act. In fact he needs to be disciplined.  
It makes me wonder. Was Soi Lek under duress (force) by someone then when he supported Liow?        Or was he really looking into the interest of his team members, ensuring them to be appointed into important positions in the Party regardless of their suitability? Or was he in actual fact looking into the interest of his son? What was the Peace Plan really for?
Recounting what had taken place, I feel Soi Lek by his Peace Plan had done more harm to the Party than strengthening it. Look at the Peace Plan. He wanted a contest at the Presidential level. He even sacrificed Mr. Gan by using him as a pawn to draw votes away from Ong Tee Keat. This was just to ensure Liow would win. At the Deputy level he even sacrificed Lim to ensure Lim had no chance to fight for the Vice Chairman post. He wanted no contest in the Vice Chairman post and the Committee post. He placed his son in the Vice Chairman level.  It is to ensure his son win the Vice Chairman post and be appointed into whatever position negotiated for. Now the Peace Plan had turned awry. It is expected to be. How can the President accommodate all the demand of Soi Lek. It seemed the President had even gone out of his way by appointing double deputy chairman in four states to accommodate his request. This is against the Party Constitution. His son was appointed as Chairman of the Perlis State Liaison Committee and which post was not negotiated for. To Soi Lek this was a betrayal. He was very much agitated and lost his cool. He is now revealing his true character.  
Mr. President, members hope you should stand firm and use the Party Constitution to guide you. MCA belongs to all members and not to a few who happened to be given the mandate to lead.
Personal agreement on matters affecting the Party made between leaders cannot over ride Party Constitution. Should there is a need, a properly elected committee or an appointed committee must be formed to deal with the issues. Any fundamental change to the structure of the Constitution a Referendum or a General Meeting needs to be held to get the mandate from the members to change. Creating extra positions such as creating extra Deputy Chairman of State Liaison Committee just to accommodate the personal agreement which termed as Peace Plan is incorrect.
Dr. Chan       17.01.14

2014-01-10

Factionalism Persists In MCA

Factionalism persists in MCA
May I refer to the article dated 7th.Jan2014 appearing at the FMT news, “Factionalism persists in MCA” written by Stanley Koh, the former head of MCA research unit, now the FMT columnist. 
Stanley Koh was right in drawing the attention of readers to the fact that factions still persists in MCA. I would say it is a fact that all organizations whether political or non political do have factions. It is up to the wisdom of the leadership to minimize the adverse effect fermented by the various factions and convert the adverse effect to the advantage of the organization. Should the leadership is able to exercise such wisdom I am sure the public will look at the organization with respect and place their hope of their future in it. Bringing up the fact that there are factions is admirable, showing braveness but, without suggesting any advice that may be useful to the leadership to cure the disease looks hollow. It may infer the writer is not writing with the intention of bettering the organization, but as a voice that supports a faction.
In my opinion factions in the MCA were made worse by the so called Peace Plan. The opinion of the public was that there was no actual democratic selection of leadership at all. The selection was predetermined. The voting was directed. Most of the honest and capable were excluded by way of manipulation from those who called the shot.
Further down the line, there were appointments to posts where same old faces from both sides surfaced. They were appointed under the Peace Plan. In the eyes of the public they were considered dead wood and not worthy at all to lead, except enriching themselves. Already there were adverse comments of the recent line-up of the Wanita wing from senior members. I am sure the public and members are very interested in the rest of the line-ups. This is a crucial stage to the organization. The leadership must be honest in action. Appoint those who are clean and capable to hold positions. The leadership must be brave enough to correct mistakes quickly should there were mistakes made.
MCA must change its perception. It must be seen as an organization free from control from any quarters. Leaders must be honest and capable, honest in their actions and capable in swaying government policies to meet the level of fairness, thus, save- guarding the interest and survival of the Malaysian Chinese community.
If this dream is achieved I am sure MCA will be relevant again to the Malaysian Chinese community.